Denny Hamlin: By Joey Wright, Assistant Sports Editor
Denny Hamlin will win his first NASCAR Cup Series championship this Sunday in Phoenix. To believe otherwise is wishful thinking.
The 39-year-old from Chesterfield, Virginia is in the midst of the best all-around stretch of his 14-year career. His seven wins are the second-most that he has tallied in a single season, and a win on Sunday would tie the eight he notched in 2010. He’s scored 17 top-fives and 20 top-10s thus far in 2020, which are both just a slight tick off what he did in those categories in 2019.
Hamlin has had a major distraction to contend with this season: the formation of his new race team with co-owner Michael Jordan. The team, which will field a single car with Bubba Wallace behind the wheel, was announced in late September and has captured the attention of the sports world at large.
The formation of that team gives Hamlin confidence, and that can’t be underestimated when it comes to the season’s final race. Hamlin has a reputation for letting championships slip away at the last second – he finished second in the standings to Jimmie Johnson in 2010 and faltered in the final race in 2014 and 2019.
But this is a different Hamlin, one who has entered the ownership phase of his career. Is it a stretch to conflate successful ventures outside the cockpit with success on the track? Look at other champions who have dabbled in ownership like Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski, Tony Stewart and Kevin Harvick for the answer.
Hamlin’s performance has been down a bit in the last 10 races or so, but I am confident in forecasting his return to form at Phoenix. Hamlin finished 20th in the spring race in Arizona after tangling with Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney on lap 65 of 312.
Keselowski, Jacob’s pick to win it all, is a solid pick who has run well this season. But to win the title has required a win in the championship race every season since the current format was introduced in 2014. Keselowski has four wins this season, with two of those coming at Loudon and Richmond.
While those tracks offered similar conditions to what Phoenix will in terms of the aerodynamic package and tire compound, they are also tracks where Hamlin has had success in the past. Keselowski has two other wins this season, but those largely stemmed from the problems of others and not a dominant effort on his part.
If Hamlin and his Joe Gibbs Racing team have gathered enough information to get a handle on the intricacies of the current Phoenix package, which they have had more than enough time to do this season, he will be the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion.
Brad Keselowski: By Jacob Steinberg, Contributor
Brad Keselowski has been one of the most consistent drivers on the NASCAR circuit for the last decade. The 2012 champion is one of two drivers who has previously won a NASCAR Cup Series championship. The aerodynamic package that drivers will race with at Phoenix Raceway is perfect for Keselowski’s driving style.
Cup Series cars use a low-downforce, 750 horsepower package on tracks less than 1.5 miles in size. Keselowski has excelled in those races this season, winning at Bristol, New Hampshire and Richmond while recording two top-five finishes at Martinsville. He also led 82 laps this spring at Phoenix but ended up finishing 11th in the last race before the season was put on pause. In short, three of his four wins this season have come with the low downforce, high horsepower aerodynamic package that fits his driving style.Joey’s pick, Denny Hamlin, is also a good pick to win the championship this Sunday. However, he has always been the bridesmaid and has never been able to break through and win the big race throughout his entire career. Though he did win at Phoenix a year ago while leading 143 laps, the aerodynamic package was completely different from the one that is used at Phoenix in the present day. With the current package, Hamlin struggled to find speed and finished 20th in the spring race.
Keselowski’s resume at Phoenix doesn’t inspire the most amount of confidence. His stats include six top-fives and 10 top-10s with an average finish of 13.5 in 22 career starts at the track. But Jimmie Johnson never won at Homestead prior to winning his seventh championship there, so anything is possible.
Keselowski confirmed that he will be driving the same car he won with in New Hampshire and Richmond, which makes him a threat to win this time around.
Though he might not be the resounding favorite, the aerodynamic package he has dominated in this season makes him too hard to pick against this time around. This weekend, Keselowski will cement his legacy and become a two-time Cup Series champion.
