Arch Madness begins this weekend, as the 11 Missouri Valley Conference men’s basketball teams make their way to St. Louis with a trip to the NCAA tournament on the line. After a year that felt like anyone could beat anyone on a given night, the conference feels wide open heading into the tournament. The Scout sports staff has made their picks on who will be this year’s Arch Madness champion.
Belmont
By Ethan Diamond
In a year where the Valley tournament seems more open than in recent years, I’m still going with the tournament’s top seed to run the table and snag the automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.
Led by MVC Player of the Year Tyler Lundblade, this Belmont group is strong and well-rounded, ranking fourth in the nation in field goal percentage and third in three-point percentage, just half a point off first place. The team also benefits from experience. Each of their top three scorers (Lundblade, Sam Orme and Drew Scharnowski) has been with the team for multiple seasons and has experienced the pace of Arch Madness. Head coach Casey Alexander also leads the Bruins into St. Louis for the fourth time.
The Bruins could pull off an upset in March Madness, but they have to reach the tournament first. And that’s exactly what they’ll achieve when they win under the arch this weekend.
Murray State
By Jake Aimone
Earning the fourth seed for the MVC tournament, the Racers’ first-year head coach Ryan Miller’s strategy has seemingly paid off. He brought in 13 new athletes, changing the landscape of Racer basketball entirely.
With no returning players from the previous season, Miller bet heavily on his newcomers, which gave him a high seed in the MVC tournament amid a spectacularly tight race, with three games separating second from eighth.
Ranking second in the conference in team offense, the Racers have been lighting up the scoreboard all season, and they will continue their offensive-minded performance in the tournament.
With eight NCAA tournament appearances under his belt, coach Miller will have his Racers prepped to make a run at the title.
Illinois State
By Jaylen Harris
Arch Madness is always a circus, but 2026 feels like the year the Redbirds finally stop playing second fiddle. Illinois State isn’t just stumbling into St. Louis; they’re arriving as the No. 3 seed after a gritty 20-11 season.
The secret sauce? Defensive intensity. They’re holding teams to just 68.3 points per game, and in a tournament where legs get heavy by day three, that “lockdown” identity wins championships. They’ve got the perfect mix of veteran leadership from Boden Skunberg and absolute bucket-getters like Johnny Kinziger and Ty’Reek Coleman. Having already capped the regular season by taking down Belmont, they’ve proven they can punch with the heavyweights. They aren’t just there to participate – they’re there to cut down the nets and show everyone that the Valley runs through Normal.
Northern Iowa
By Ian Manley
It may seem like a long shot, but Northern Iowa is a scrappy team that plays well when it counts. They had a strong start to the season, winning 11 out of 14 games, and while they’ve lost some of that momentum as the season has gone on, they still have a solid shot in this tournament. Bolstered by an extremely balanced offense led by senior guard Trey Campbell, the Panthers are a team that can always find a way to score.
Their staunch perimeter defense has held opponents to the third-lowest opposing three-point percentage in the nation at just 28.2%. The team may struggle in the paint at times, but they are efficient at notching rebounds, ranking 73rd in the nation. With the steady hand of longtime head coach Ben Jacobson in his 20th season, Northern Iowa has a clear path in front of them.
Bradley
By Mark Wagner
Bradley has undoubtedly been one of the most surprising teams in the Valley this season.
With the Braves’ top three scoring leaders from last season – Duke Deen, Darius Hannah and Zek Montgomery – all graduated, they’ve had to rely on an almost entirely new lineup. But with players like Jaquan Johnson and Alex Huibregtse leading the charge, Bradley has come in clutch when it mattered most in the regular season.
Now that the Braves have clinched the two-seed after a big win over Murray State, they will face the winner of Valparaiso-Indiana State on Friday. In this type of conference, anyone can beat anyone, as Bradley has done in the past few months, beating every team except UIC at least once. And with a break to sharpen their skills even more, the Braves look dangerous going into the tournament and could easily leave St. Louis with some hardware for the first time since 2020.
